Over much of the past 40 years, betting on the Pittsburgh Pirates has been a good way to lose a lot of money. But based on some early movement this season, the Pirates are a popular pick among baseball gamblers.
According to Max Meyer of Caesars Sportsbook, no one is getting more action to exceed, or fall short of, their original projected win total than the Pirates going over 61.5 wins.
The MLB win total bet that has drawn the most action at @CaesarsSports…
Pittsburgh Pirates over (93.5% of tickets & 99.6% of handle)
(via @TheMaxMeyer) pic.twitter.com/NObDEdgVvq
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) February 26, 2023
Meyer recently posted at Caesars.com that wagering on the Pirates to go over their predicted win total is the most popular bet on the MLB over-under board.
“There has not been an MLB win total bet that has drawn more money than the over for the Pirates. Among all bets placed on Pittsburgh’s win total, the over has generated a whopping 93.5% of the tickets and 99.6% of the handle. It’s the most lopsided MLB win total bet by handle, and it’s the second-most lopsided by tickets (Twins over is at 94.5%),” Meyer wrote.
Because of all the action on the Pirates, that win total has been driven all the way up to 67 at Caesars.
Meyer said the largest wager on Pittsburgh’s win total so far was by a Pennsylvania bettor who staked $3,000 on the Pirates over 65.5 wins at minus-110 (a rate of trying to win $100 for every $110 bet) for a potential win of $2,727.27. He added that an MLB-leading 17 bets of at least $1,000 have come in on the Pirates “over” total.
Eric Biggio is lead MLB trader at Caesars Sportsbook. He told Meyer all the action on the Pirates surprised him, especially based on last year’s willingness for gamblers to bet on the under for the Pirates.
Regardless of how low the bar was set.
“We had a few customers last year who bet on the under at whatever number we put up for the Pirates. So I wanted to make it a low number this year. I see the argument on the over with Oneil Cruz and a few of the other young guys, and the division isn’t the toughest either,” Biggio said.
In other words, who says you can’t keep selling hope?
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That’s apparently what the Pirates are successfully doing. And the gambling public is buying at a rapid rate.
Consider me among the masses on this one. I’ve got the Pirates at 72 wins. Or — maybe better said — only 90 losses.
Yeah. My bar is low. I’m aiming for the Pirates to have a “only” 90-loss season instead of 100.
That said, it’s a 10-win improvement. If you go from 82 wins to 92 wins, you go from barely above .500-level mediocrity to either a division winner or a wild card.
If you go from 100 losses to 90 losses, you still stink. But, if you are the Pirates, it’s progress. And I expect some of that from Derek Shelton’s team this year.
As Biggio pointed out, it’s reasonable to expect improvement from the likes of Cruz, Rodolfo Castro and Ke’Bryan Hayes. It’s also reasonable to think that Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras have room to blossom in the rotation.
Not to mention, whatever veteran contributions the likes of Rich Hill, Carlos Santana, Andrew McCutchen and Ji-Man Choi may add.
It’s all about perspective. There’s a big difference between saying “the Pirates are going to be good” and “the Pirates are going to be better.”
At 61.5 wins, if you bet the over, you weren’t even betting that the Pirates were going to be better. You were just betting that the Pirates wouldn’t be worse. After all, they won 62 games last year.
At 67 wins, that’s simply a moderate improvement of five games. Even to me — an ultimate Pirates cynic — that’s not exactly pie-in-the-sky optimism.
Keep moving that line, Caesars. Because I’m jumping on Bucs over 67 as well.
But not over 72.5.
