Here’s my Pittsburgh Steelers prediction. You won’t like it.
The Steelers will go 7-10. Coach Mike Tomlin’s first losing season. (What a relief that will be. The streak of years without a playoff win will be extended to six, however.)
I’m not totally convinced of my prediction. This Steelers team has more variables than any in recent memory. A lot of things could go different ways, and drastically so.
Here’s what might kill the Steelers:
• Quarterback.
• The offensive line. (It also might kill the quarterback.)
• Inside linebacker Devin Bush.
• The schedule.
• Injuries at key positions.
Here’s what might elevate the Steelers:
• Quarterback.
• The defensive line.
• Inside linebacker Myles Jack. (Jack must be better than Bush is bad.)
• Luck.
• The defensive unit’s star power translating to the corresponding level of efficiency and splash plays.
Most of these subjects have been beaten to death. Much like running back Najee Harris figures to be despite his talent and best efforts.
But that schedule is brutal. Not just the early going, either.
The Steelers play Baltimore and Cincinnati twice. They play at Buffalo, Indianapolis, Miami and Philadelphia. They host Las Vegas, New Orleans and Tampa Bay.
Peter King, America’s best football writer, picks seven of those teams to make the playoffs and says Indianapolis and Las Vegas will miss on a tiebreaker. How many of those 11 games do you expect the Steelers to win?
If the Steelers fail, you’ll blame quarterback Mitch Trubisky. (Will you ever blame Kenny Pickett if the occasion arises?)
But if these Steelers come up short, it’s on the defense. They have three superstars in edge rusher T.J. Watt, defensive lineman Cam Heyward and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. It’s the NFL’s highest-paid defensive unit.
The defense must win games. Not set records, make All-Pro or lead the league in sacks. But win games. That’s difficult for a defense to do in today’s high-octane NFL. But that’s the choice the Steelers made.
The defense must be top five. Not top 10. Top 10 won’t be good enough. (Last year, it ranked 24th in yards allowed. That was decidedly not good enough.)
Oh, right, the defense was on the field too much. That’s the excuse.
Too bad.
The defense gets paid the most. So, do the most. (Mario Lemieux always said that, and embraced it.)
You want to root for something? Root for luck. Luck is the Steelers’ best chance.
Root for Trubisky, too. Be fair. If you’re chanting Pickett’s name at Acrisure Stadium, you might as well be cheering for the Steelers to lose.
