Mike Tomlin’s teams are always prepared.
Except when they’re not.
Like they weren’t in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ last five playoff games, all losses.
Last season, the Steelers were down by 21 to Baltimore at halftime.
The season before, they trailed Buffalo by 21 midway through the second quarter.
In the 2021 playoffs, Kansas City led 21-7 at halftime.
In the 2020 playoffs, the Steelers trailed Cleveland by 28 after one quarter.
In the 2017 playoffs, they were down by 21 to Jacksonville early in the second quarter.
Those games have nothing to do with Monday night’s wild-card contest versus Houston at Acrisure Stadium.
Unless they do.
The Steelers being well-coached and ready is the myth.
Those games are the reality.
The Steelers came out flat in the last two regular-season games, too, trailing Cleveland, 10-0, after one quarter and Baltimore by the same score early in the second quarter.
Tomlin gets a favorable matchup Monday night: His opposite number is Houston’s DeMeco Ryans, a defense-minded coach like Tomlin who prefers to hold leads, not extend them, and is very likely to acquiesce to a rock fight.
Ryans is 21-13 in one-score games (.618 winning percentage), and Tomlin is 112-73-2 (.613).
If the game turns into a coin flip, you’d like the Steelers at home.
Unless they’re down by 28 after one quarter.
Other matchups seem more consequential than Tomlin vs. Ryans:
• Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. vs. Houston wideout Nico Collins. That’s if the Steelers decide to have Porter man up on Collins. Porter hasn’t been beaten for a touchdown in 1,495 snaps. Collins is Houston’s top receiver and burned the Steelers for seven catches, 168 yards and two touchdowns in 2023.
• Steelers wideout DK Metcalf vs. Houston cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., who made first-team All-Pro last season. Metcalf is a bust as a Steeler, his two-game suspension for smacking a fan at Detroit being the cherry on top. Metcalf has had just two games of over 100 yards receiving and eight games under 50. Metcalf owes the Steelers a big game, not least because his contract’s average annual value is $33 million. (Disclaimer: Houston prefers to let their cornerbacks stay on their sides and not follow particular receivers. But the corner opposite Stingley is Kamari Lassiter, who isn’t quite in Stingley’s class but is also a top talent. Metcalf faces a stiff challenge regardless.)
• The Steelers’ defensive front vs. Houston’s offensive line. The latter isn’t a great group, but it hasn’t allowed a sack in three games. Like Metcalf, T.J. Watt owes the Steelers a big showing. His contract’s AAV is $41 million, but he’s had just one multi-sack game this season, zero sacks in seven games and just a half-sack in two others. Watt arguably hasn’t had a single dominant performance the entire campaign. Nor has he ever won a playoff game, and he has just one sack in four postseason tilts. Watt needs to come through huge. (It’s more likely that Alex Highsmith or Cameron Heyward will.)
• Steelers tackles Troy Fautanu and Dylan Cook vs. Houston edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Anderson has 12 sacks and 20 tackles for loss, Hunter 15 sacks and 15 TFL. Anderson and Hunter are the NFL’s best edge-rush duo. Fautanu is a future All-Pro, but Cook is a fourth-stringer. Never mind keeping Aaron Rodgers clean. Fautanu and Cook have to keep Rodgers alive.
This game is certainly winnable for the Steelers.
Just get through the first quarter without being routed.
