With the 2024 presidential election a year away, a poll of battleground states shows former President Donald Trump with a lead over President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania in a potential rematch of 2020, though Trump’s legal trials could have an effect on the race.
Trump has a 4 percentage point lead over Biden among registered voters in Pennsylvania in a potential 2024 matchup, according to a New York Times/Siena Research poll published Sunday. Trump’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error, which was 4.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania.
Trump garnered 48% of registered voters in the poll, while 44% said they would vote for Biden.
#NEW @SienaResearch/@nytimes Polls,
NEVADA
Trump 50% (+8)
Harris 42%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 48% (+5)
Harris 43%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 48% (+4)
Harris 44%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 47% (+3)
Harris 44%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 48% (+2)
Harris 46%
.
MICHIGAN
Harris 48% (+2)
Trump 46%3,662 LV, 10/22-11/3 https://t.co/Jwojz4luQ3
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 6, 2023
The poll was conducted over cellular and landline telephones from Oct. 22 to Nov 3. Just over 3,660 registered voters were polled in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The poll also has leaners giving Biden a slight edge. Of voters who are undecided, 29% said they lean toward Biden, while 26% lean toward Trump. Forty-four percent of leaners didn’t know or refused to say.
Trump is ahead in five of six swing states polled. He had leads outside of the margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada. Biden has a 2 percentage point lead in Wisconsin — inside the margin of error.
The poll shows both men’s favorability ratings lagging among Pennsylvanians. Trump’s approval is at 41% and disapproval at 57%. Biden has an approval of 41% and voter disapproval of 58%.
The poll says another Democrat who isn’t Biden would be performing well in swing states, including Pennsylvania. If a generic Democrat were running against Trump, then 49% of registered voters in Pennsylvania would back the Democrat, compared to 42% who would vote for Trump.
A generic Democrat is leading against Trump in all six swing states, according to the poll.
Other Republican presidential candidates, including former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, also would be leading in a head-to-head race with Biden in Pennsylvania.
It’s unlikely that Democrats will abandon Biden with the election one year out, but another factor could shift the tide: a criminal conviction against Trump.
Trump has pleaded not guilty to federal and state charges in connection with efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
If Trump were convicted, Biden would be leading in all six battleground states. Four of the leads are outside of the margin of error: Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
PA likely voters move the least in a Trump-Biden matchup where Trump is convicted. From +4 Trump to +2 Biden. 6 point swing, where some other states are swinging double digits https://t.co/k9vRKtz7Lf
— Ryan Deto (@RyanDeto) November 6, 2023
Pennsylvania voters would shift the least amount of any swing-state voters in the event of a conviction, but it would still move Keystone State voters 6 percentage points toward Biden.
Biden would lead by 2 percentage points, which is within the margin of error, if Trump were convicted.
