The NFL playoff picture has been set. Fourteen teams are preparing to battle for a spot in Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara on Feb. 8.
Then there are 18 teams that will have an early off-season, each hoping that this year could have been different. One tipped pass, one fumble recovered or one broken tackle could have been the difference between winning and losing. Every game played, whether in Week one or Week 18, contributes the same weight to a team’s record. Yet getting off to a good start does make a difference.
In fact, how a team begins the season has historically been a very good predictor of whether they make post-season play. Unfortunately for some teams, like the Colts, Lions and Buccaneers, they are now a statistical outliers.
The Colts were on the losing side of several close games that could have made a difference in the standings. Recall their overtime loss to the Chiefs or their six turnovers against the Steelers. Wins in these games could have pushed them into a playoff spot. Conversely, a win against the Steelers would have undermined the Steelers’ final week luck that pushed them into a playoff spot, demonstrating how one team’s good fortune may contribute to another team’s hardship.
So what do the statistics say about teams who begin well in September and fade in December?
Over the past five seasons, 78% of teams that start 2-0 make the playoffs. If we look over the first four weeks of a season, 85% of teams who start 4-0 or 3-1 make the playoffs. The Colts, Lions and Buccaneers all started 3-1, as did the Steelers.
To go one step further, the Colts started the season 7-1, placing them at the top of the NFL, four games ahead of the Texans, who eventually made the playoffs after a 0-3 start. The Texan also defeated the Colts twice, placing yet another nail in the Colt’s post-season chances. Wins in both these games would have pushed the Colts ahead of the Texans in the standings.
What happened to the Colts. Lions and Buccaneers this season is not unique. Last season, the Seahawks missed the playoffs with weeks two and four records of 2-0 and 3-1, respectively.
Pittsburgh fans are certainly thrilled with their Steelers. They started 3-1 and proceeded to finish 7-6, stealing the AFC North championship with their week 18 win over the Ravens (with a mid-range missed field goal by the Ravens the deciding factor).
So what is the takeaway from all these teams?
Starting 2-0, or better yet, 4-0 or 3-1 are still good predictors of reaching post-season play. However, they do not guarantee playoffs spots. Much like flipping a coin that happens to come up heads 85% of the time, the flips will produce more heads than tails. But even with lower chances, tails will still occur.
This is exactly what happened with the Colts, Buccaneers and Lions this season. They were on the receiving end of a biased coin in their favor that happened to flip against them. On the other hand, the Steelers flipped a head when they needed to. Such is how the laws of probability work.
Over time, probabilities do have a way of evening things out. So when the 2026 season begins, all fans should keep rooting for those early season wins. Though nothing is guaranteed, a good start pushes the odds of making post-season play in a team’s favor. However, sometimes the odds are not enough to guarantee a chance to play for the Super Bowl.
Sheldon H. Jacobson is a computer science professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He applies his expertise in data-driven risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy, public health and sports.
